Ercot summer peak demand.
In 2018, ERCOT’s peak load record was 69.
Ercot summer peak demand. 6 GWs - surpassing the amount during previous ice storms - while on August 18th, 2025, we hit our summer peak at 83. This forecast is based on a set of econometric models describing the hourly load in the region as a function of the number of premises in various customer classes (residential, business, and May 5, 2023 · ERCOT PUBLIC 3 1 Project Name GENERATION INTERCONNECTION PROJECT CODE County Fuel Zone Year of Projected Commercial Operations (a) Summer Capacity MW Contribution % Summer Peak Ave. Jun 11, 2025 · ERCOT will be extraordinarily weather-dependent, with small shifts in weather able to drive large asymmetric movements in energy prices during tight supply conditions. 8%. 3 Jun 6, 2024 · CPS Energy CEO Rudy Garza predicts ERCOT this summer’s power demand peak will shatter last year’s 85,500-megawatt record as demand, heat increase. On February 20th, 2025, we hit an all-time peak winter energy use of 80. On September 8, ERCOT set a new unofficial September peak demand record of 84,182 MW, breaking the previous September record set just the day prior at 83,911 MW. ERCOT set an all-time peak demand record of 85,464 MW on August 10, 2023,” the news release states. 5 GW, this has grown by over 16 GW to 85. Jan 18, 2022 · de demand at the time of ERCOT’s summer peak. 13 released its 2025-2029 Capacity, Demand and Reserves report. Source: ERCOT Challenges Ahead Peak consumer demand for electricity on the Texas grid ballooned in summer 2023, setting a record at 85. Jun 29, 2025 · The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state’s power grid operator, projects a peak demand of 87,500 megawatts, surpassing the August 2023 record of 85,464 megawatts and significantly higher than the 74,650 megawatts in 2021. Jun 24, 2025 · ERCOT officials said on Tuesday peak summer usage could hit 87. Apr 24, 2025 · No ISO illustrates this more than ERCOT, as its recent load forecast is calling for peak demand to almost double by 2030, attempts to aid natural gas-fired power plant construction are off to a stuttering start, and tariffs and multiple Texas state bills are looking to handicap the economics of renewable generation. m. As winter reliability becomes more of a challenge, resource capacity value will be tied much more strongly to winter peak availability than summer peak availability. 5 gigawatts, set amid summer 2023 May 12, 2025 · Amid an unseasonably intense heatwave, Texas’ power grid operator ERCOT is forecasting a staggering surge in electricity demand that could rival the all-time state record—months ahead of peak Sep 15, 2023 · On it, Texans can view current and yearly demand records as well as historical information. Oct 9, 2025 · Rising Energy Use and Peak Demand in ERCOT Energy use and peak energy use in ERCOT continues to rise. Jun 6, 2024 · ERCOT set 10 new all-time peak demand records in 2023. 20 with its first-ever mark above 80 GW, a number once reserved for summer months. 6 GW to 89. For the 2025 summer period in the ERCOT electric market, the Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) report shows that planning reserve margins are projected to decrease compared to last year and the peak Net Load hour margin is expected to enter negative territory, beginning in the 2026 summer period. 5 million homes during peak demand. Jan 17, 2024 · ERCOT set new unofficial peak winter demand records of 70,982 MW, 76,340 MW and 78,138 MW on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, respectively. The reports also include scenarios to show demand and resource availability for selected hours based on expected grid conditions. Jun 27, 2024 · According to NERC, ERCOT expects to have nearly 3,500 MW of demand response resources available this summer, the equivalent of 4% of normal peak demand. What can you do? You have more control than you think. 31. When coal plants shut down for unexpected maintenance, solar and wind stepped in, providing about 50% of generation during peak summer demand in the highest electricity consuming state in the union. Apr 25, 2025 · The official kick-off to summer is almost here. On January 8th, 2021, ERCOT published its yearly Long-Term Hourly Peak Demand and Energy Forecast report1, predicting a summer peak of 77. That is more than 50% what solar contributed during the hour of peak demand on the highest demand day of summer 2023, which is the result of ERCOT adding more solar capacity to the grid in the past year. . This value is used to determine that meter's share of the entire grid’s Feb 20, 2025 · ERCOT set a new winter demand peak Feb. Its dashboard forecasts to shatter last year's records and potentially In 2018, ERCOT’s peak load record was 69. The current peak is about 85. The main purpose of the report is to provide potential future planning reserve margins expected to be available on the grid when demand is highest during the summer and winter seasons. ERCOT’s forecast calls for peak demand rising from 87 GW in 2025 to 145 GW in 2031 with the addition of data centers, cryptocurrency mining, and industrial growth. 2% of the ERCOT grid’s electricity this year through June. Nov 26, 2024 · The most recent ERCOT Four Coincident Peak (4CP) program calculations for each Distribution Service Provider, for the months of June, July, August and September can be found here: ERCOT Four Coincident Peak Calculations ERCOT 4CP program calculations for prior years are located under Key Documents. Exhibit 2: ERCOT Yearly Peak Demand Records, 2000-2024 (GW) Jul 31, 2025 · The forecast reflects rapid electricity demand growth in Texas and several mid-Atlantic states, where the grid is managed by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and the PJM Interconnection, respectively. If demand surpasses the Texas grid’s generation capacity, ERCOT may be forced to deploy controlled outages. The record setting demand has been largely driven by industrial growth and extreme temperatures. 18 Overall, during the peak summer period in 2024, ERCOT met demand with a combination of legacy resources (natural gas and other thermal resources) and the more recent additions of solar and energy storage. Figure 5 (with the net load including wind, shown in blue)—which allowed lower-cost charging from existing thermal units. Nov 22, 2024 · During the hour of peak demand (4 to 5 p. Resources come from various programs, including several that are administered by ERCOT as well as those administered by other entities. Prior to 2023, the previous September peak of 72,370 MW was set on September 1, 2021. May 30, 2025 · Threat level: ERCOT predicts the state's summer peak energy demand to nearly double by 2031. Dec 13, 2016 · Executive Summary The 2017 Long-Term Demand and Energy Forecast (LTDEF) for the ERCOT region is presented in this report, which includes the methodology, assumptions, and data used to create the forecast. In fact, ERCOT is projecting demand could hit an unprecedented 87,500 MW later this summer — a level that would surpass the previous record of 85,508 MW set in August 2023. 6 GW2 in 2021, growing to 84. Constant load growth has already led to increased congestion and highlighted the need for improved infrastructure to cope, prompting a series of major transmission buildout plans. Apr 11, 2025 · As a result, ERCOT forecasted last year that peak power demand could increase to 150 gigawatts by 2031 — a huge jump from the current peak demand record of 85. 6 GW this summer. 5 Jul 22, 2025 · While the heat is returning, the final impact on peak demand remains unclear, and the next two weeks will be critical in determining whether ERCOT breaks its summer silence. Texas RE-ERCOT: An additional 7 GW of installed solar PV resource capacity and nearly 7. 5 GW in new battery storage is helping ERCOT meet rising summer peak demand. 6% increase. The North Central Weather Zone also shows a significantly higher load forecast for winter than summer with a magnitude of just under 3,000 MW. “The new Peak Demand Records webpage increases public visibility into current and past record-breaking demand on the grid,” ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas said in a prepared release. Jun 3, 2025 · And remember, this forecast only covers the summer of 2025. Jun 24, 2025 · Texas is expected to set a new record for electric demand this summer, officials said June 24, due to forecasted hot, dry weather and continued economic growth. Jul 22, 2025 · Solar and wind generated 40. Sep 9, 2011 · ERCOT set a new all-time peak demand record on three consecutive days (August 1-3, 2011), culminating in a new all-time peak of 68,294 MW. We expect electricity demand in ERCOT to grow at an average rate of 11% in 2025 and 2026 while the PJM region grows by 4%. Jun 9, 2025 · By 2030, ERCOT projects peak summer demand to push 150 GW, with 50 GW of that expected to come from large-load interconnections. Stunning stat: Energy demand this February set a new all-time winter record. 5 gigawatts, or enough electricity to power about 17. The Coincidental Peak (CP) is the value of an electricity meter’s peak demand (in kW) when the regional power grid’s demand is at a maximum. Prior to 2023, the all-time peak usage record was 80,148 MW, set in July 2022. By combining diverse forecast inputs and applying proven methodologies, ERCOT delivers a comprehensive view of future grid needs—supporting better planning, reliability, and long-term investment. ERCOT is a summer peaking system and the all-time record Jul 30, 2024 · Not only this, but the grid operator saw its record peak electricity demand broken on ten separate occasions throughout the summer, culminating in a 85,435MW record peak on 10 August 2023 (as illustrated in the graph below). Jan 14, 2025 · Solar electricity generation and utility-scale batteries within the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) power grid set records in summer 2024. Oct 24, 2025 · Summer=June, July, August, and September hourly values for each year; ERCOT=Electric Reliability Council of Texas Batteries store electricity during daytime when generation from wind and solar is the highest, and they supply electricity when generation from wind and solar is declining. This exceeds the prior year's record by 2,518 MW, or an increase of 3. And while ERCOT is typically a summer-peaking system, demand records were being surpassed even as fall approached. “This summer, ERCOT set 10 new all-time peak demand records. Dec 10, 2019 · Contains an explanation of how the ERCOT Long-Term Hourly Peak Demand and Energy Forecast was developed. Demand could reach as high as 144,522 megawatts in a single day in 2031, per the projections. Demand on the grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas topped 80. 6 GW lower value of 75. Aug 26, 2024 · Despite record temperatures last week and a new peak demand record, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas said it was able to maintain service without conservation requests, which it Oct 17, 2023 · Texas just witnessed its second-hottest summer ever and its highest electricity demand without experiencing interruption to electricity delivery. One of the most important metrics is the coincident peak or CP. Sep 14, 2023 · This summer, ERCOT set 10 new all-time peak demand records. Even though ERCOT’s 2023 forecast is much larger than the 2022 forecast, it is actually similar to the 2020 forecast. 1 GW in the past year, a 6. It was accomplished through a breakout in solar-generating capacity, strong thermal plant generation and the emergence of utility-scale battery storage. Jan 28, 2025 · The South Central Weather Zone was impacted the most with the forecasted 2029 winter peak load under the 2021 weather condition being almost 5,000 MW higher than the forecasted summer peak for the same year. 5% annually for the next five years. Figure 4 (below) shows the ranges of ERCOT Summer Peak demands based May 15, 2025 · NERC identifies six regions with elevated risks of insufficient operating reserves during above-normal peak conditions this summer: MISO, ERCOT, SPP, NPCC-New England, MRO-SaskPower, and WECC-Mexico. ), solar generated significant output: about 18 gigawatts or 21% of total generation. Since 2013, ERCOT has historically overpredicted the summer peak by an average of 1. A graph showing ERCOT’s summer peak demand records for 2022 and 2023. 2 GW in 2021, growing to 85. Learn more about alerts deployed by ERCOT here. Contains ERCOT Monthly Peak Demand and Energy values. The beginning of summer is also when many regional power grids start to measure a business’ Coincidental Peak demand. May 28, 2025 · Ascend forecasts a more moderate load forecast than ERCOT, reaching 119 GW of peak demand by 2030, far short of the ERCOT’s Transmission Service Provider-supplied demand forecast of 208 GW, and also significantly lower than ERCOT’s more conservative 138GW adjusted demand forecast. As one of the top commercial electricity providers, we offer integrated business energy solutions to commercial and industrial customers. 15 GW. ERCOT and utilities offer demand response programs for Texas energy users. The current demand record is nearly 85. Apr 8, 2025 · Long-Term Load Forecast page. Capacity Contribution MW Mar 1, 2023 · This analysis characterizes the past and future evolution of peak electricity demand in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) service area… Oct 10, 2023 · The MORA report uses probability-based modeling to determine the likelihood that ERCOT will have insufficient operating reserves during each monthly peak electric demand period. In critical evening hours, when load, or demand for electricity, remains elevated but solar output declines, discharge from May 13, 2025 · With the summer heatwave coming in hot (no pun intended), ERCOT is expecting peak demand for residents looking to cool off. Feb 20, 2025 · The Texas power grid served record-breaking wintertime demand for a second-straight day Thursday. 3. Dec 15, 2017 · Executive Summary The 2018 Long-Term Demand and Energy Forecast (LTDEF) for the ERCOT region is presented in this report, and includes the methodology, assumptions, and data used to create the forecast. Jun 19, 2025 · With ERCOT’s 4CP season back in full swing, we’re taking a look at last year’s surprises, the shifting landscape of demand in Texas, why the program may change in the coming years, and how to better inform your real-time operations throughout the summer. In ERCOT, nearly 3,500 MW of DR resources are expected for this summer, the equivalent of 4% of normal peak demand. This forecast is based on a set of econometric models describing the hourly load in the region as a function of the number of premises in various customer classes (residential, business, and Feb 13, 2025 · The Electric Reliability Council of Texas on Feb. The grid operator also predicts this summer will set a new peak demand record. Chris Coleman, who leads Aug 21, 2024 · Summer heat helped break the ERCOT all-time demand record Tuesday. Feb 13, 2025 · Texas’ main grid operator on Thursday forecast that the state’s growing demand for power could surpass its available energy supply beginning in summer 2026. The winter of 2034-35 peak, under normal weather, could hit 147,300 megawatts, the forecasts Jun 9, 2025 · In Texas alone, ERCOT predicts demand growth could increase 75% by the end of the decade. On average, solar contributed nearly 25 percent of total power needs during mid-day hours between June 1 and Aug. 10 (Exhibit 2). 5 gigawatts. 5 gigawatts Jan 14, 2025 · Under normal weather conditions, ERCOT projects 2034 summer peak demand to approach 155,000 megawatts. 508 gigawatts on Aug. It takes about 1 megawatt to power 200 homes during extreme heat or cold. In a report outlining potential May 6, 2025 · ERCOT’s 2025 LTDEF provides a detailed and data-driven roadmap for understanding the region’s evolving power demand. 8 GW in 2030. ERCOT’s 2028 summer peak forecast increased from 83. Coincident Peak- Understanding ERCOT 4CP, Arcus Power's CP call accuracy and importance of Peak Demand periods across all major ISO's in North America Managing energy demand is extremely important for utility companies and energy managers. This value is used to determine that meter's share of the entire grid’s Feb 20, 2025 · Summer demand peaks are higher, with ERCOT’s summer record about 85,500 megawatts. 9 GW, though forecasts from that period said it could have reached higher if not for demand response ERCOT’s 2025 load forecast projects an even higher summer peak demand of 208 GW by 2030, although ERCOT adjusted this forecast to 139 GW, which still implies an average load growth rate of 8. Stated differently, using the 2015 historical factors resulted in th highest ERCOT coincident summer peak forecast. Jun 14, 2023 · The Electric Reliability Council of Texas anticipates record-breaking peak electricity demand of 82,739 megawatts this summer, according to the Summer 2023 Seasonal Assessment that ERCOT published Nov 29, 2022 · These amounts of solar and wind capacity are what ERCOT expects to be available on an average basis during seasonal peak demand hours (the peak average capacity contribution). As an alternative, we present a simple linear benchmark, predicting a 1. This record is more than 14 percent higher than the peak demand in August 2019. ERCOT has already stated they might be required to implement rolling blackouts this summer. ekkhqcj5f83h6xecytotpvxtcz7dvek2uqpp